U.S. researchers predict below-average 2015 Atlantic hurricane season

Researchers from the Colorado State University (CSU) are predicting a “well below-average” hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2015, citing the likely development of a moderate to strong El Niño event as well as anomalous cooling of the tropical and sub-tropical Atlantic.

On Thursday, the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project called for seven named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Of those, the researchers expect three to become hurricanes and one to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

The team based its forecasts on over 60 years of historical data that included Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Niño (warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and other factors, the CSU said in a press release.

So far, the 2015 season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 1957, 1987, 1991, 1993 and 2014 hurricane seasons, all of which had below-normal activity, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the report.

“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and the chances of a moderate to strong El Niño event this summer and fall appear to be quite high,” he said. “Historical data indicate fewer storms form in these conditions.”

The team predicts that 2015 tropical cyclone activity will be about 45% of the average season. By comparison, 2014’s tropical cyclone activity was about 75% of the average.

The CSU team will issue forecast updates on June 1, July 1 and Aug. 3.

The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall on U.S. soil:

• 28% for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52%);

• 15% for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31%);

• 15% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30%); and

• 22% for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42%).