WSI maintains its prediction of active hurricane season in 2011

WSI (Weather Services International) is maintaining its forecast for above-average activity in the 2011 hurricane season, likely with a landfall on the US Gulf coastline.
Its 2011 predictions include 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater).
While WSI does not predict as active a season as 2010, it does anticipate the storms that do occur will have a greater impact on the US coastline, especially in the western Gulf states.
“The lack of US landfalls in 2010 was primarily due t a persistent western Atlantic trough that essentially protected the US East Coast from any direct hits,” a WSI release says.
“We do not expect this feature to be in place this year during late summer and fall when most tropical storms occur.”
Warmer-than-normal North Atlantic water temperatures, very low surface pressures in the main development region, and no impending El Nino event are all drivers of an active season, the release says.
“The US has been spared from any landfalling hurricanes since 2008, and the hurricane drought in 2009 and 2010 is relatively rare in the historical record. In fact, the US has not had a three-year stretch without a hurricane landfall since the 1860s… Our recent good fortune in avoiding landfalling hurricanes is not likely to last.”