WSI modifies 2010 hurricane forecast slightly to account for slow start to the season

Weather Services International (WSI) has downgraded its 2010 hurricane forecast slightly to account for a slow start to the early season in June and July, but nevertheless predicts an “extremely active” season in August through to October.
In total, WSI is now calling for 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater), a decrease of only one named storm from its June forecast numbers.
“While all of the primary drivers are strongly enabling for tropical activity, we have had a slow start relative to other very active seasons,” said WSI chief meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “Further, a pocket of very dry air in the tropical Atlantic will likely limit development in the near-term.
“Because of these factors, we have decreased our forecast total number of named storms from 20 to 19. We still expect an extremely active August-October period.”
WSI says the El Nino event credited with the suppression of hurricanes “has vanished completely,” and tropical Atlantic ocean temperatures are at record warm levels.
“Eastern and central tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at record warm levels for July, even warmer than the freakishly active season of 2005,” WSI notes. “Water temperatures are already at levels more typical of late August.”
WSI says conditions are such that the northeast United States had an enhanced risk of hurricane landfall this season.
“Our statistical landfall forecast model…suggests that the threat to the Northeast coast this season is on par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states.”