Global insured average annual loss up to US$74.4 billion: AIR

AIR Worldwide Corp. released Tuesday its 2015 Global Modeled Catastrophe Losses report, reporting the global aggregate average annual insured loss was $74.4 billion in 2015, up from $72.6 billion in 2014.

All figures are in United States dollars.

The report includes global exeedence probability metrics on both an insured and insurable basis. [Click image to enlarge]

The aggregate exceedence probability loss, for the 100-year return period, was $232.8 billion in 2015, up from 231.5 billion in 2014.

For the 250-year return period, the aggregate exceedence probability loss was $304.8 billion in 2015, up from $292.5 billion in 2014.

The insurable loss metrics “include all exposures eligible for insurance coverage assuming standard limits and deductibles, regardless of whether they are actually insured,” AIR Worldwide said in the report.

AIR’s exceedence probability curves quantifiy risk profiles for portfolios or individual risks. They are generated by gathering information on historical events, which is then used to infer what can happen in the future.

Boston-based AIR Worldwide develops industry exposure databases for more than 90 countries. Those models include counts, replacement values and physical attributes of insurable properties.

The global aggregate average annual loss metrics include results from two new models that AIR introduced in this year’s report. One is Canada winter storm and the other is tropical cyclone.

AIR said it updated some of its other models, including Canada severe thunderstorm, U.S. hurricane and U.S. flood, among others. It also added tsunami modeling to its South America earthquake model, which is also expanded to include Ecuador. The European inland flood model was expanded this year to include Switzerland, Austria and the Czech Republic.

AIR broke down both the aggregate average annual insured and insurable losses – and the aggregate exceedence probability losses – by region.

Of the $74.4 bllion average annual loss in 2015, $47.1 billion was in North America (Canada, the U.S., Bermuda and Mexico), $10.7 billion was in Europe, $10.4 billion was in Asia, $4.5 billion was in Latin America and $1.6 billion was in Oceania.

Of the $135.9 billion in insurable losses, $76.7 billion was in North America, $36.3 billion was in Asia, $13.7 billion was in Europe, $7.5 billion was in Latin America and $1.7 billion was in Oceania.