Above average hurricane activity likely in 2011: Colorado State University

Next year will likely see nine hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, five of which will be major, predicted scientists at Colorado State University.
“We foresee an above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2011 and anticipate an above-average probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall,” Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, climatologists at Colorado State wrote.
According to Klotzbach and Gray, the probabilities for at least one major (category 3-4-5) hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas are:

• 73% for the entire US coastline (average for the last century is 52%);
• 49% for the US East coast, including the Florida Peninsula (average for the last century is 30%); and
• 48% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for last century is 30%).

“We do not expect to see El Nino conditions reemerge in 2011. At this point, we are uncertain whether La Nina conditions or neutral conditions are more likely for the 2011 hurricane season,” Klotzbach wrote.