Decadal hurricane models are on the horizon: Lloyd’s

Climate models may be capable of predicting the frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes as far as 10 years ahead, well beyond the current seasonal timescale, Lloyd’s reported.
Lloyd’s awarded its inaugural Science of Risk Prize to Doug Smith of the U.K.’s Met Office for the finding.
Smith’s research paper, ‘Skilful Multi-year Predictions of Atlantic Hurricane Frequency’ was published in the journal Nature Geoscience.
“Atlantic hurricanes are one of the biggest single causes of insured loss, and the cost of hurricane damage is expected to continue as the concentration of people and property increases in coastal areas,” Smith told Lloyd’s. “Our study is important for understanding the mechanisms of multi-year hurricane variability, and for the first time, we demonstrate a capability to make skilful predictions of hurricane frequency beyond the next season.”
But the study also has wider applications, Smith told Lloyd’s. Forecasts could help predict U.S. rainfall amounts, help the energy and financial sectors prepare for unusual periods of hot or cold weather or predict droughts.
The research also noted a dramatic increase in hurricane activity since the mid-1990s, compared with a quiet period in the 1970s.
“The research showed that this was at least partly because of external factors like greenhouse gases and aerosols and natural variations of solar radiation and volcanic activity,” Smith said.
“This is an important finding because there is much controversy about the cause of the increase in the hurricane frequency.”