Willis Re launches Japan tsunami model

Willis Re, the reinsurance division of Willis Group Holdings, has released a new Japan Tsunami Model, which it says is the first with probalistic and deterministic modelling functions created by a broker.

The new model combines tsunami loss information with earthquake shaking damage output. It provides both Willis Re and its clients the latest intelligence to quantify and manage risk from these extreme events, where historically losses have been little understood.

“The tragedies of the India Ocean tsunami in 2004 and the tsunami that followed the Tokohu earthquake in 2011 plainly illustrated how damaging these catastrophes can be,” William Thompson, regional director for Willis Re Japan said in the announcement Tuesday.

“They highlighted the need to better understand and quantify the risks from secondary perils.

“Japan earthquake risk has been rigorously investigated and modelled but the complexity of modelling tsunami has led to a significant gap in the industry’s ability to quantify risk for severe earthquake events. The Willis Japan Tsunami Model is another vital step towards closing this gap and providing Willis Re clients with the most comprehensive view of risk.”

Through the Willis Research Network, Willis Re has worked closely with Tohoku University and University College London (UCL) on the model since 2010.

“We, at EPICentre, are proud to have worked with Willis Re for several years on the development of the tsunami model,” Tiziana Rossetto, director of EPICentre at UCL noted in the statement.

“Our focus has been on the development of the vulnerability model, linking tsunami intensity with mean damage and loss. There are significant obstacles to estimating tsunami losses due to limited availability of data for low-frequency/high-severity events. The current tsunami vulnerability model utilizes rigorous statistical analysis of detailed data from the 2011 Japan Tsunami, resulting in a model which represents the state-of-the-art in estimating losses per building due to tsunamis.

“Over the coming years we are utilizing detailed analysis and unique testing facilities, able to generate the longest tsunami-like waves of any facility in the world, to better represent the behaviour of structures under tsunami action. This is enabling us to remain at the forefront of vulnerability analysis for locations at-risk of tsunamis around the world.”